Olho na tela...
Fundamentos melhorando a cada divulgação dos resultados...
Atenção para o volume no rompimento dessa máxima de hoje !
Elucubrar... (V.) Assuntar, cismar, considerar, contemplar, especular, filosofar, lucubrar, matutar, meditar, pensar, ponderar, raciocinar, ver, refletir, reflexionar ...
terça-feira, 30 de janeiro de 2007
Funding e concorrência pressionam banco médio
Na mesma semana em que o Banco BMC anunciou sua venda para o Bradesco, seis bancos médios divulgaram os balanços de 2006, mostrando margens comprimidas e operações de crédito crescendo o dobro do que o patrimônio e mais até que os depósitos. Ao avaliar esses dados, o presidente da consultoria Austin Ratings, Erivelto Rodrigues, conclui que o principal desafio dos bancos médios "é fortalecer o capital e a estrutura de funding". Caso contrário, instituições "com expertise em um segmento tenderão a ser incorporadas por outras".
"Nossa avaliação não mudou. Acreditamos que a consolidação do sistema financeiro vai continuar", afirmou a analista da Fitch Ratings, Maria Rita Gonçalves, lembrando que já houve a onda da venda de operações de financiamento de veículos e ao consumo. Ponderou ainda que, como quase todos bancos médios têm controle familiar, a decisão de vender passa muitas vezes por questões particulares como sucessão, além do preço e da oportunidade de negócio. Maria Rita concorda com Rodrigues ao afirmar que, em um cenário de maior pressão de margem e expansão do mercado, "os bancos precisarão focar mais na eficiência, escala e adequação da liquidez".
O resultado dos seis bancos médios, consolidado pela Austin Ratings, mostra uma queda de 16% no lucro líquido, de R$ 612,1 milhões para R$ 513,7 milhões, mas a conta é influenciada pelos números do BMG, cujo lucro líquido caiu 31,9%; e, em menor escala, pelo Pine, que registrou uma diminuição de 7,7%. No Sofisa, o resultado ficou praticamente estável. Os outros três bancos aumentaram o lucro: o BRP, em 43,3%; BicBanco, em 26,8%; e o Industrial, em 23%. Em conseqüência do aumento da competição, a rentabilidade também recuou, de 30,5% em 2005 para 21,3% em 2006. Dos seis bancos, apenas metade aumentou o retorno: Bic, Industrial e BRP.
Os balanços reunidos pela Austin Ratings também mostram que os depósitos totais e os patrimônios cresceram, mas em ritmo inferior ao da expansão das carteiras. Os bancos médios, segundo Rodrigues, já se "reinventaram" em termos de funding, após a crise de liquidez de 2005, quando os investidores institucionais se retraíram com a quebra do Banco Santos. A primeira saída foi a onda da cessão de carteiras de crédito. Foi essa política, lembrou Rodrigues, que alavancou os resultados do BMG em 2005. A cessão de carteira permite ao banco antecipar os resultados que seriam obtidos ao longo do tempo de vida do contrato da operação de crédito.
Como no ano passado o BMG teve maior acesso a outras fontes de recursos, reduziu o volume de cessões. A nova política causou a diminuição do lucro, apesar da carteira de crédito do banco ter crescimento 56,5%. O BMG e os outros bancos médios passaram a captar recursos no exterior - inclusive na forma de dívida subordinada, que reforça o patrimônio de referência - e no mercado interno com a emissão de fundos de investimento de direito creditório (FDICs). Apesar disso, segundo Rodrigues, persiste o desafio.
No caso dos FDICs, a taxa não pode passar dos 110% do CDI, "senão o custo do funding fica muito caro para repassar". A mudança de regra de contabilização das cessões de carteira, esperada para este ano mas ainda não confirmada, pode complicar mais a situação. Pelo que se especula, as operações cedidas com coobrigação terão peso 100% para efeito de cálculo do capital mínimo na nova regra e não mais os 50% atuais; e o ganho não poderá ser antecipado.
Do lado do comprador, o risco será o banco cedente e não mais as operações cedidas. Para Rodrigues, está na hora de o Banco Central reduzir a exigência mínima de capitalização dos bancos de 11%. A regra da Basiléia prevê 8%. Mas o Brasil elevou o índice para 10% inicialmente e depois para 11%. "Agora os bancos brasileiros estão sólidos", disse o presidente da Austin Ratings.
Nasdaq - Futuro - Diario
Segue análise do Indice QQQQ confeccionada pela equipe do Hot Stix Weekly
"I. Market Commentary
There is a ton of news this week that can / will certainly drive this market in either direction. Most importantly an FOMC meeting on Wednesday to see if Interest rates will be cut any time soon.
For us, recently we were stopped out of our long position with a small loss. The Q's are now sitting on a potential support.
Unfortunately for the Q's any bounce will be looked at from many as an opportunity to short this market as it appears to be in a Broading Top pattern which should measure back down to ~ 41. This can be seen on the 3 charts we feature. (D,W,M)"
There is a ton of news this week that can / will certainly drive this market in either direction. Most importantly an FOMC meeting on Wednesday to see if Interest rates will be cut any time soon.
For us, recently we were stopped out of our long position with a small loss. The Q's are now sitting on a potential support.
Unfortunately for the Q's any bounce will be looked at from many as an opportunity to short this market as it appears to be in a Broading Top pattern which should measure back down to ~ 41. This can be seen on the 3 charts we feature. (D,W,M)"
Petrobras - Diario em Dolar
Log - Atualizando
(Atenção !!! Não se trata da ADR, e sim da PETR4 indexada ao Dolar Comercial)
sábado, 27 de janeiro de 2007
Ibov Mensal
Log - Expansões e canal
Médias de 2 e 10 anos...
0= 0,001
23,60 %= 6600
38% = 10.700
50% = 14.000
61,8% = 17.300
100 % = 28.000
162 % = 45.300
Vale5 - Grafico Intradiario - 120 ''
Expansões devidamente cumpridas...
Vemos uma resistência atingida pela expansão de 100% Fibo na faixa dos 60,00, onde a danada deve de dar uma "acalmada" por alguns candles ...
ou não... !!!
segunda-feira, 22 de janeiro de 2007
Ibov Diário em Dolar - Atualizando...
Percebam o conceito de "internas" e "externas" novamente adotado...
Tão somente Elucubrações Grafistas...
Ibov Intradiario - Grafico de 240 '
Observações e suportes/resistências (por Fibonacci) demarcadas no próprio Gráfico .
domingo, 21 de janeiro de 2007
Candlesticks
Mais uma "free"do Sr. Nison...
Espero que apreciem !!!
http://www.nisoncandles.com/highlights/whycandles/whycandles.html
Espero que apreciem !!!
http://www.nisoncandles.com/highlights/whycandles/whycandles.html
sexta-feira, 19 de janeiro de 2007
La Fonte - MLFT4
Grafico Diario, contemplando os movimentos após a divulgação pela CVM da abertura de Capital do Shopping Iguatemi.
Expansões e Suportes por Fibonacci.
Eternit
Gráfico Semanal - LOG
A Caixa Econômica anunciou hoje orçamento de pelo menos R$12 bilhões para financiamento de projetos habitacionais para 2007. O banco estima que estes recursos permitirão o financiamento de pelo menos 515 mil contratos para imóveis novos, usados, construção ou reforma. Em 2006, a Caixa destinou R$14 bilhões para habitação, que gerara, 600,3 mil contratos. O orçamento deverá ser incrementado pelas medidas do Programa de Aceleração do Crescimento (PAC), a ser anunciado pelo presidente Lula no próximo dia 22 de janeiro (segunda-feira), quando o governo definirá metas a serem cumpridas até 2010 tanto na área de habitação quanto de saneamento.
Essa era a situação em meados de Dezembro...
Atualizando...
Ontem, foi divulgado:
A Caixa Econômica anunciou hoje orçamento de pelo menos R$12 bilhões para financiamento de projetos habitacionais para 2007. O banco estima que estes recursos permitirão o financiamento de pelo menos 515 mil contratos para imóveis novos, usados, construção ou reforma. Em 2006, a Caixa destinou R$14 bilhões para habitação, que gerara, 600,3 mil contratos. O orçamento deverá ser incrementado pelas medidas do Programa de Aceleração do Crescimento (PAC), a ser anunciado pelo presidente Lula no próximo dia 22 de janeiro (segunda-feira), quando o governo definirá metas a serem cumpridas até 2010 tanto na área de habitação quanto de saneamento.
Segue atualização Gráfica:
quinta-feira, 18 de janeiro de 2007
Usiminas - Intradiario - 60 min
Gerou entrada para swing acima dos R$ 76,00, com stop bem justo. Vamos acompanhar...
terça-feira, 16 de janeiro de 2007
Brazil Index Dow Jones - BR20
ADRs continuam atraentes apesar de fusões entre bolsas internacionais
January 16, 2007 4:05 a.m.
Por Lyneka LittleThe Wall Street Journal.
Enquanto grandes bolsas de valores investiram na criação de mercados globais, os investidores americanos que querem investir em ações estrangeiras fizeram a negociação de ADRs bater um recorde ano passado.O volume de negociação de ADRs, títulos que representam ações de empresas estrangeiras negociados em bolsas americanas, fechou o ano em mais de US$ 1,58 trilhão, ante US$ 963 bilhões em 2005, de acordo com dados do J.P. Morgan Worldwide Securities Services, uma divisão do J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
Muitas das maiores empresas brasileiras como o Banco Bradesco SA, a Gerdau SA e a Cesp, Companhia Energética de São Paulo, são negociadas nos EUA por meio de ADRs.O aumento do interesse por ADRs reflete uma diversificação de portfólios para minimizar o risco, além do melhor desempenho de ações não-americanas em relação à Média Industrial Dow Jones e ao índice de 500 ações da Standard & Poor em 2006, e "a contínua fraqueza do dólar em comparação às moedas estrangeiras", diz Christopher Sturdy, vice-presidente-executivo e diretor da Divisão de ADRs do Bank of New York, que age como agente de transferência para os ADRs.
Sturdy também nota um "aumento significativo em contas administradas separadamente, que são uma maneira econômica para investidores e gestores de investimentos selecionar uma cesta de ações", e diz que os fundos de hedge começaram a investir mais no exterior nos últimos anos, o que pode contribuir para o crescimento na negociação de ADRs.Há 450 ADRs listados nas maiores bolsas americanas, como a Bolsa de Valores de Nova York, a Nasdaq, e a American Stock Exchange, de acordo com o J.P. Morgan."Eu acho que na maioria das vezes o ADR é preferido simplesmente porque é mais fácil", diz Yxa Bazán, diretora da divisão de ADRs da América Latina do J.P. Morgan.
Investidores americanos podem comprar fundos mútuos que investem em ações estrangeiras, mas comprar ações diretamente em bolsas estrangeiras pode ser difícil por causa do câmbio e das diferenças em regulamentações, entre outras coisas.Com os ADRs, "investidores americanos podem comprar aquelas ações (em empresas estrangeiras) em dólares usando métodos e protocolos que lhes são familiares", diz Andy Nybo, um consultor do TABB Group, uma firma de pesquisa de mercado de Massachusetts.Ainda não se sabe se a eventual emergência de grandes bolsas de valores globais vai reduzir o atrativo dos ADRs no futuro. A fusão da Nyse Group Inc., operadora da Bolsa de Nova York, com a Euronext NV, que é dona de quatro bolsas européias, foi aprovada pelos acionistas das duas empresas, e aguarda aprovações adicionais de autoridades regulamentadoras e governos.
Na semana passada, a Nyse Group disse que vai comprar uma fatia de 5% na Bolsa Nacional de Valores da Índia. Enquanto isso, a Nasdaq Stock Market Inc. tenta comprar a London Stock Exchange PLC, com uma oferta que a Bolsa de Londres chamou de "inadequada".Mesmo com bolsas globais, especialistas do setor acreditam que as diferenças nos sistemas de regulamentação vão continuar a dificultar para o investidor americano comprar ações estrangeiras.
"Embora possam surgir bolsas globais, não vemos na verdade nenhuma redução da necessidade de ADRs", diz Sturdy.Os dez maiores ADRs respondem por mais de 25% do valor total de investimento em ADR, de acordo com o Bank of New York. Entre eles estão o ADR da operadora mexicana de celular América Móvil — a dona da Claro —, a petrolífera anglo-holandesa Royal Dutch Shell, e a gigante farmacêutica britânica GlaxoSmithKline.Bolsas globais e ADRs podem coexistir enquanto investidores buscam investir em pequenos mercados emergentes cujos sistemas de regulamentação não sejam tão desenvolvidos quanto nos EUA, e haja liquidez suficiente, diz Nybo.
"Mesmo que as bolsas globais sejam completamente interconectadas, as chances de que você consiga comprar ou vender uma ação diretamente num mercado estrangeiro são mínimas, na melhor das hipóteses" diz.
Composição atualizada e Grafico Semanal - LOG
quarta-feira, 10 de janeiro de 2007
CRB - Semanal - LOG
Commodities...
Após cumprimento de 100% das expansões ( pontilhado verde ) e a definitiva perda do canal altista iniciado em 2002, temos a formação do pivot de queda projetando 100% na região dos 295 e 168% nos 252, sendo a região dos 274 bps um suporte significativo. Jaca caindo !
terça-feira, 9 de janeiro de 2007
Bradesco - Semanal - LOG
Precisaria definir ... Temos alguns dias para o fechamento da semana, reversão dos indicadores "rápidos" e a não configuração de uma tentativa frustrada de rompimento do TH !!!
Vamos observar !!!
Análise de Retrovisor - II
Petrobras - LOG - Semanal em Dolar
Mais uma das coincidências de Fibonacci ...
Análise de Retrovisor
IBOV - LOG - Diario - Indexado ao Dólar
O Blog não está sendo "alimentado" por conta de Férias (merecidas !) com a família !
Lembram-se desse post em 26/12 ?
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgETC-bDk7oK9n8FW7ltIo9aGrbJICQPZknnCV748peQ-8V2vyzmLeSj9O4E-gHNuakkr7Tz9IQh8F2643yWDWxS-WRTY2lT_JGAfEEbzBdBS0MM8L_rWu4fuG_LBJTOJCkMeE2BEfIb18/s1600-h/ibovdd.gif
O ponto de INTERROGAÇÃO tava no lugar errado ...rrrrssssss!!! Segue o gráfico atualizado...
quinta-feira, 4 de janeiro de 2007
Energy Information Administration
Bom dia e Feliz 2007
Curtindo merecidas férias com a Família, divido com os colegas o Relatório da Divisão Petrolífera do EIA - Americana
2006: The Year in Review
This past year saw the near-month price of crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange hit an all-time high (unadjusted for inflation) in August, then retreat to significantly lower levels in subsequent months. The U.S. average retail price for regular gasoline remained at or above $3 per gallon for four consecutive weeks during the summer, before declining to an average of $2.26 per gallon over the last quarter of the year . This year also saw OPEC cut its production targets for the first time since April 2004. While many noteworthy events occurred this past year, listed below are excerpts from previous editions of This Week in Petroleum that highlight some of these events.
Changes in Fuel Specifications This past year saw a major reduction in sulfur content of diesel fuel and the elimination of methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) used in reformulated gasoline. Below are excerpts from two editions in 2006 that highlighted these fuel specification changes:
The Year of the Fuel Spec (January 5)- The ultra-low-sulfur diesel (ULSD) program begins in 2006 with the requirement that at least 80 percent of on-highway diesel fuel being supplied must have no more than 15 ppm sulfur content at retail. Refineries are scheduled to comply by June 1. (The sulfur content of non-road, locomotive, and marine diesel fuel will be ratcheted down in subsequent years.)
Notwithstanding the hurricanes last fall, refinery modifications to allow production of ULSD are largely on track. The biggest challenge is expected to be delivery of the product from supply source to retail. ULSD will travel with other petroleum products through pipelines on the way to bulk terminals from which it will be shipped by tanker truck to truck stops and retail stations. However, other petroleum products traveling in the pipeline system with a much higher sulfur content could easily contaminate ULSD -- jet fuel, for example, can have 3000 ppm of sulfur. If ULSD is contaminated, it may not be possible to correct the batch by blending with additional low sulfur product. Contaminated ULSD may have to be returned to a refinery for reprocessing, which can be difficult because petroleum product transportation systems are not designed to return product to refineries. However, even without supply problems, the price of diesel should increase over what it would otherwise be due to the higher cost of producing ULSD.
What About "BOB"? (May 10)- Not to be confused with the 1991 movie starring Bill Murray and Richard Dreyfuss, the “BOB” of most relevance to petroleum markets today is RBOB, an acronym for Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending. First introduced in 1994 as an element of the reformulated gasoline (RFG) program, RBOB grew out of suppliers’ inability to ship ethanol, or gasoline containing ethanol, through pipelines. Now that nearly all RFG, which makes up about one-third of U.S. gasoline consumed, contains ethanol, the supply, demand, and prices of RBOB are a key to U.S. gasoline markets.
In recent weeks, a major concern in U.S. gasoline markets has been the changeover from MTBE to ethanol in RFG sold in much of the Northeast and parts of Texas, the last remaining MTBE RFG markets. While issues regarding ethanol, including supply adequacy and the logistics of transportation, storage, and blending, have attracted more attention, the supply of RBOB is also being watched to determine if supplies are adequate. Tight specifications for RBOB, especially Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) limitations, make it more difficult and costly to produce, and some refineries in the U.S. may find it difficult to produce as much RFG when ethanol is used as they formerly made when MTBE was used. While this doesn’t necessarily mean that RFG supply will be reduced, it does imply that there will be a change in the pattern of supply. The winter-summer transition and the continuing effects of last fall’s hurricanes on refinery operations have further exacerbated the situation.
Weather Was a Key Factor This YearA very warm January 2006 helped to keep oil prices from reaching even higher levels during the first part of 2006. Below are highlights from two editions of This Week In Petroleum that spoke to this issue:
Hello, Winter (February 8)- - As if on cue, with the opening ceremony for the Winter Olympics just two days away, winter weather has returned to many parts of the country after a long absence. Following the warmest weather on record in January in the United States, temperatures have recently returned to normal and below-normal in many regions of the country. But with only a few weeks left in the heart of winter, will the drop in temperature, even if it persists, dramatically affect heating oil prices?
While a severe, lengthy cold snap could have an impact on heating oil prices, there are a number of factors that would tend to limit any upward price movement. First, the record warmth in January enabled total distillate fuel inventories (diesel fuel and heating oil combined) to increase when they typically decline. Between December 30, 2005 and February 3, 2006, total distillate fuel inventories increased by 7.1 million barrels, compared to the most recent 5-year monthly average for January in which they declined by 9.5 million barrels. The increase in inventories seen over the last five weeks is the largest increase in January since 1990! Even heating oil inventories (greater than 500 ppm sulfur distillate fuel) rose by 3.8 million barrels, compared to the 5-year average for January of a decline of 4.0 million barrels. Since 1993, when EIA began collecting data on heating oil inventories, the only other year which saw a similar increase in January was 2001, when inventories increased by 3.7 million barrels.
Winter weather may have returned just in time to help put us in the mood to watch the Winter Olympics, but probably too late to cause any major increase in residential heating oil prices.
In Retrospect (March 29)- - What began as a potential crisis for petroleum heating fuel markets in the aftermath of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, did not materialize, as these markets essentially weathered the 2005-06 heating season in much better shape than many petroleum market analysts had anticipated. Although heating fuel prices quickly adjusted upward following the devastating effects of the hurricanes, generally mild temperatures prevailed in much of the United States over most of the winter, reducing demand and helping to calm these markets over this period. Distillate fuel inventories, including heating oil and diesel fuel, fell a paltry 3.5 million barrels from the end of September 2005 through March 24, 2006. Comparatively, the 5-year average stockdraw for distillate fuel during the October through March period totals about 17.5 million barrels. The absence of a significant stockdraw reflects the weak level of heating fuel demand this past winter, leaving distillate inventories 16.6 million barrels above the same period last year, and well above the average range for this time of year. EIA’s pre-season outlook had called for 2005-06 heating oil prices to be as much as 30 percent higher in the Northeast compared with the previous year. However, with the mild winter, average heating oil prices, although still high by historical standards, were only about 23 percent above the prior-year average.
Ironically, what appeared to be a potentially dire situation for heating fuels if the United States experienced a cold winter, actually turned out to be quite different, as a result of the milder temperatures.
The Oil Price Drop of 2006 While much of 2006 will be associated with high oil prices, the spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil did drop from just above $77 per barrel on August 7 to just below $56 per barrel on November 17. The article below was written just as WTI was falling and being sustained below $60 per barrel for the first time since December 2005:
Expectations (October 4)- - This past summer, U.S. crude oil and petroleum product prices rose, in part due to expectations about the coming hurricane season and the possibility of a supply disruption occurring in any number of countries or regions. The devastating impact last year’s hurricanes had on oil infrastructure, along with forecasts of another strong hurricane season this year, led many oil market participants to buy additional contracts early in the year, with the expectation that prices could be much higher should hurricanes do similar damage this year or supply be disrupted overseas. However, when these expectations did not materialize, the sell off of contracts began and prices plummeted. Now, many market participants are judging that the risk of a supply disruption is very low and that oil demand growth is slowing along with the country’s economy.
This past year has certainly been an interesting one for oil market analysts and 2007 appears likely to be another interesting year, especially given various opinions on how the coming year will unfold. Happy New Year to all of the readers of This Week In Petroleum!
Residential Heating Oil Prices Dip While Propane Prices Remain SteadyResidential heating oil prices decreased for the period ending December 25, 2006. The average residential heating oil price decreased 0.7 cent per gallon last week to reach 243.7 cents per gallon, an increase of 0.4 cent from this time last year. Wholesale heating oil prices decreased 8.3 cents to reach 174.8 cents per gallon, a decrease of 2.1 cents compared to the same period last year.
The average residential propane price increased 0.3 cent, arriving at 198.5 cents per gallon. This was a decrease of 2.1 cents compared to the 200.6 cents per gallon average for this same time last year. Wholesale propane prices decreased by 1.4 cents per gallon, from 102.7 to 101.3 cents per gallon. This was a decrease of 16.6 cents from the December 26, 2005 price of 117.9 cents per gallon.
Retail Gasoline Price Continues to Increase; Diesel Down SlightlyThe U.S. average retail price for regular gasoline for December 25, 2006 increased 2.1 cents to 234.1 cents per gallon. Prices are 14.4 cents per gallon higher than at this time last year. East Coast prices were up 3.4 cents to 235.2 cents per gallon. In the Midwest, prices rose 0.2 cent to 227.3 cents per gallon. Gulf Coast prices increased 1.6 cents to 221.3 cents per gallon, while Rocky Mountain prices rose 0.7 cent to 224.9 cents per gallon. Prices for the West Coast were up 3.8 cents to 257.9 cents per gallon, marking the seventh consecutive week of price increases. West Coast prices are 36.3 cents per gallon higher than at this time last year.
Retail diesel fuel prices were lower again this week, falling 1.0 cent to 259.6 cents per gallon. However, prices are still 14.8 cents higher than at this time last year. East Coast prices fell 1.2 cents to 258.7 cents per gallon, while the Midwest price decreased 0.5 cent to 255.0 cents per gallon. The Gulf Coast also saw a decrease of 0.5 cent to 251.4 cents per gallon. Rocky Mountain prices fell 0.3 cent to 271.3 cents per gallon. Prices on the West Coast decreased 3.1 cents to 285.6 cents per gallon.
Propane Stockdraw Maintains Average Trend for MonthU.S. propane inventories continued lower last week while maintaining a course above the 5-year average range for this time of year. Last week’s stockdraw totaled 0.5 million barrels, pushing inventories down to an estimated 63.5 million barrels as of December 22, 2006, a level that continues to track near the upper boundary of the average range. Changes in inventory levels were mixed across the regions last week with East Coast inventories moving higher by 0.1 million barrels, and Midwest inventories rising by 0.3 million barrels. However, Gulf Coast inventories dropped by 0.8 million barrels last week, while inventories in the combined Rocky Mountain/West Coast regions were 0.1 million barrels lower during this same time. Propylene non-fuel use were relatively unchanged, accounting for a 5.6 percent share of total propane/propylene inventories compared with the prior week’s 5.5 percent share.
Curtindo merecidas férias com a Família, divido com os colegas o Relatório da Divisão Petrolífera do EIA - Americana
2006: The Year in Review
This past year saw the near-month price of crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange hit an all-time high (unadjusted for inflation) in August, then retreat to significantly lower levels in subsequent months. The U.S. average retail price for regular gasoline remained at or above $3 per gallon for four consecutive weeks during the summer, before declining to an average of $2.26 per gallon over the last quarter of the year . This year also saw OPEC cut its production targets for the first time since April 2004. While many noteworthy events occurred this past year, listed below are excerpts from previous editions of This Week in Petroleum that highlight some of these events.
Changes in Fuel Specifications This past year saw a major reduction in sulfur content of diesel fuel and the elimination of methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) used in reformulated gasoline. Below are excerpts from two editions in 2006 that highlighted these fuel specification changes:
Notwithstanding the hurricanes last fall, refinery modifications to allow production of ULSD are largely on track. The biggest challenge is expected to be delivery of the product from supply source to retail. ULSD will travel with other petroleum products through pipelines on the way to bulk terminals from which it will be shipped by tanker truck to truck stops and retail stations. However, other petroleum products traveling in the pipeline system with a much higher sulfur content could easily contaminate ULSD -- jet fuel, for example, can have 3000 ppm of sulfur. If ULSD is contaminated, it may not be possible to correct the batch by blending with additional low sulfur product. Contaminated ULSD may have to be returned to a refinery for reprocessing, which can be difficult because petroleum product transportation systems are not designed to return product to refineries. However, even without supply problems, the price of diesel should increase over what it would otherwise be due to the higher cost of producing ULSD.
In recent weeks, a major concern in U.S. gasoline markets has been the changeover from MTBE to ethanol in RFG sold in much of the Northeast and parts of Texas, the last remaining MTBE RFG markets. While issues regarding ethanol, including supply adequacy and the logistics of transportation, storage, and blending, have attracted more attention, the supply of RBOB is also being watched to determine if supplies are adequate. Tight specifications for RBOB, especially Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) limitations, make it more difficult and costly to produce, and some refineries in the U.S. may find it difficult to produce as much RFG when ethanol is used as they formerly made when MTBE was used. While this doesn’t necessarily mean that RFG supply will be reduced, it does imply that there will be a change in the pattern of supply. The winter-summer transition and the continuing effects of last fall’s hurricanes on refinery operations have further exacerbated the situation.
Weather Was a Key Factor This YearA very warm January 2006 helped to keep oil prices from reaching even higher levels during the first part of 2006. Below are highlights from two editions of This Week In Petroleum that spoke to this issue:
While a severe, lengthy cold snap could have an impact on heating oil prices, there are a number of factors that would tend to limit any upward price movement. First, the record warmth in January enabled total distillate fuel inventories (diesel fuel and heating oil combined) to increase when they typically decline. Between December 30, 2005 and February 3, 2006, total distillate fuel inventories increased by 7.1 million barrels, compared to the most recent 5-year monthly average for January in which they declined by 9.5 million barrels. The increase in inventories seen over the last five weeks is the largest increase in January since 1990! Even heating oil inventories (greater than 500 ppm sulfur distillate fuel) rose by 3.8 million barrels, compared to the 5-year average for January of a decline of 4.0 million barrels. Since 1993, when EIA began collecting data on heating oil inventories, the only other year which saw a similar increase in January was 2001, when inventories increased by 3.7 million barrels.
Winter weather may have returned just in time to help put us in the mood to watch the Winter Olympics, but probably too late to cause any major increase in residential heating oil prices.
Ironically, what appeared to be a potentially dire situation for heating fuels if the United States experienced a cold winter, actually turned out to be quite different, as a result of the milder temperatures.
The Oil Price Drop of 2006 While much of 2006 will be associated with high oil prices, the spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil did drop from just above $77 per barrel on August 7 to just below $56 per barrel on November 17. The article below was written just as WTI was falling and being sustained below $60 per barrel for the first time since December 2005:
This past year has certainly been an interesting one for oil market analysts and 2007 appears likely to be another interesting year, especially given various opinions on how the coming year will unfold. Happy New Year to all of the readers of This Week In Petroleum!
Residential Heating Oil Prices Dip While Propane Prices Remain SteadyResidential heating oil prices decreased for the period ending December 25, 2006. The average residential heating oil price decreased 0.7 cent per gallon last week to reach 243.7 cents per gallon, an increase of 0.4 cent from this time last year. Wholesale heating oil prices decreased 8.3 cents to reach 174.8 cents per gallon, a decrease of 2.1 cents compared to the same period last year.
The average residential propane price increased 0.3 cent, arriving at 198.5 cents per gallon. This was a decrease of 2.1 cents compared to the 200.6 cents per gallon average for this same time last year. Wholesale propane prices decreased by 1.4 cents per gallon, from 102.7 to 101.3 cents per gallon. This was a decrease of 16.6 cents from the December 26, 2005 price of 117.9 cents per gallon.
Retail Gasoline Price Continues to Increase; Diesel Down SlightlyThe U.S. average retail price for regular gasoline for December 25, 2006 increased 2.1 cents to 234.1 cents per gallon. Prices are 14.4 cents per gallon higher than at this time last year. East Coast prices were up 3.4 cents to 235.2 cents per gallon. In the Midwest, prices rose 0.2 cent to 227.3 cents per gallon. Gulf Coast prices increased 1.6 cents to 221.3 cents per gallon, while Rocky Mountain prices rose 0.7 cent to 224.9 cents per gallon. Prices for the West Coast were up 3.8 cents to 257.9 cents per gallon, marking the seventh consecutive week of price increases. West Coast prices are 36.3 cents per gallon higher than at this time last year.
Retail diesel fuel prices were lower again this week, falling 1.0 cent to 259.6 cents per gallon. However, prices are still 14.8 cents higher than at this time last year. East Coast prices fell 1.2 cents to 258.7 cents per gallon, while the Midwest price decreased 0.5 cent to 255.0 cents per gallon. The Gulf Coast also saw a decrease of 0.5 cent to 251.4 cents per gallon. Rocky Mountain prices fell 0.3 cent to 271.3 cents per gallon. Prices on the West Coast decreased 3.1 cents to 285.6 cents per gallon.
Propane Stockdraw Maintains Average Trend for MonthU.S. propane inventories continued lower last week while maintaining a course above the 5-year average range for this time of year. Last week’s stockdraw totaled 0.5 million barrels, pushing inventories down to an estimated 63.5 million barrels as of December 22, 2006, a level that continues to track near the upper boundary of the average range. Changes in inventory levels were mixed across the regions last week with East Coast inventories moving higher by 0.1 million barrels, and Midwest inventories rising by 0.3 million barrels. However, Gulf Coast inventories dropped by 0.8 million barrels last week, while inventories in the combined Rocky Mountain/West Coast regions were 0.1 million barrels lower during this same time. Propylene non-fuel use were relatively unchanged, accounting for a 5.6 percent share of total propane/propylene inventories compared with the prior week’s 5.5 percent share.
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